Reasoning
Fed Chairs historically submit dots in the SEP as a matter of standard practice and governance; all recent Fed Chairs including Powell have consistently participated. Warsh, as the sitting Chair, faces strong institutional and procedural expectations to submit a dot. However, a non submission could theoretically occur if Warsh wanted to signal policy independence from the Committee or protest a consensus view, which aligns with his known preference for hawkish positioning. Given that nine of eighteen participants already project above the current 3.50 to 3.75 percent range for year end 2026 (versus the June median of 3.8 percent), Warsh may feel comfortable with the Committee's hawkish tilt without needing to signal via absence. The precedent of Fed Chairs submitting dots is very strong, making non submission unlikely absent extraordinary circumstances.Key uncertainty
Whether Warsh perceives significant daylight between his policy views and the emerging Committee consensus on terminal rates, and whether he views a non submission as a credible signaling mechanism rather than a procedural anomaly that would invite media and market misinterpretation.