Reasoning
The FOMC has held the 3.50 to 3.75 percent target range since the June 17, 2026 meeting and the June SEP shows nine of eighteen participants projecting a year end 2026 rate above the current range, indicating the Committee is already biased toward caution. Historical precedent shows the Fed rarely revises its risk assessment language within a single tightening cycle unless a major data shock occurs, and Chair Warsh has maintained a neutral tone since the June decision. With inflation data still within recent ranges and no immediate signs of renewed pressure, the probability of an explicit upside tilt remains limited but non negligible given the SEP's hawkish shift.Key uncertainty
Not specified