Reasoning
Chair Warsh's June 17, 2026 decision to drop forward guidance and hold the 3.50 to 3.75 percent range despite the SEP median rising from 3.4 to 3.8 percent signals a deliberate shift to data dependence; historical precedent shows the FOMC rarely reintroduces explicit rate language within a single tightening cycle once it has been removed, and the nine of eighteen participants projecting year end 2026 rates above the current band reinforce the likelihood of continued silence through year end.Key uncertainty
Whether a sharp deterioration in labor market data before the September meeting forces Chair Warsh to reintroduce guidance to anchor expectations.