Reasoning
Warsh has chaired the June 17, 2026 meeting that erased the cutting bias and held the 3.50 to 3.75 percent target range while lifting the year end 2026 SEP median to 3.8 percent; nine of eighteen participants now project a higher year end rate than the current range, and no subsequent data release has shifted the committee toward easing. Historical precedent shows Fed chairs rarely label policy insufficiently restrictive in press conferences after such hawkish adjustments. The absence of any dovish signal in the post meeting statement further lowers the likelihood of an explicit reversal.Key uncertainty
A sharp deterioration in labor market data before the next FOMC meeting could prompt Warsh to reassess and signal that the current stance is too tight.