Will Warsh explicitly say in a press conference that a rate cut is not the Committee's base case?

Warsh erased the prior cutting bias at the June 17 meeting with the target range held at 3.50 to 3.75 percent and the year end 2026 median raised to 3.8 percent; nine of eighteen SEP participants now project a higher year end rate than the current range, a sharp reversal from the March 2026 median of 3.4 percent. Historical precedent shows chairs rarely preempt the next move with explicit denials during periods of policy uncertainty, and the July 11 data release window still leaves room for incoming inflation or labor market signals before the next scheduled press conference. The combination of a hawkish June dot plot and the absence of any scheduled press conference date lowers the odds that Warsh volunteers an explicit statement that a rate cut is not the base case.