Will headline PCE remain at or above 3.5% year over year for three consecutive monthly releases in H2 2026?

Given the Federal funds target range of 3.50 to 3.75 percent, and the median projection for the year-end 2026 funds rate at 3.8 percent, tightening monetary policy indicates a commitment to controlling inflation. With nine of eighteen SEP participants forecasting rates above the current range, it suggests that inflation pressures may persist, contributing to elevated PCE, potentially at or above 3.5%. However, whether economic conditions lead to this sustained inflation is uncertain due to possible effects of monetary policy on demand.