Will WTI crude oil close above $95 per barrel for at least 10 consecutive trading days in H2 2026?

WTI opened at 96.08 dollars per barrel on 19 September 2026 after the June 17 FOMC held the target range at 3.50 to 3.75 percent and lifted the median year end 2026 dot to 3.8 percent, signalling a tighter policy path that is historically associated with demand restraint. Since 2010, oil has recorded ten consecutive trading days above 95 dollars only during supply shock episodes such as the 2022 Russia invasion, whereas the current environment shows no comparable disruption and global inventories remain near five year averages. With the Fed Chair Kevin Warsh projecting a higher terminal rate, the probability of sustained price strength through the second half of the year is low.