Will the U.S. national average gasoline price exceed $4.25 per gallon for four consecutive weeks in H2 2026?

Current economic conditions, including a stable federal funds target range of 3.50 to 3.75 percent, suggest limited room for aggressive monetary policy that might lower gasoline prices. Additionally, recent projections indicate that nine out of eighteen Federal Open Market Committee participants foresee a year-end rate above the current target range, which could contribute to sustained inflationary pressure. Given this backdrop, coupled with the potential for seasonal demand increases in the latter half of 2026, a sustained gasoline price above $4.25 per gallon for four weeks remains plausible but uncertain.