Will shelter CPI remain above 4.0% year over year in any H2 2026 release? | Crene

Back to thesis map Part ofWill the Federal Reserve raise the target range for the federal funds rate at any point during 2026?

Current eventInflation pressure

Will shelter CPI remain above 4.0% year over year in any H2 2026 release?

LiveResolves Dec 31, 2026

Current view

66%

Current 4 model consensus

Movement

Recent consensus movement

Model disagreement

17pt

Range across the model set

Evidence

Contested

Material disagreement remains

Thesis map

What is carrying or resisting the view?

Start with the map. Select a mechanism or condition to see what supports the thesis, what resists it, and where disagreement deserves review.

What changed

No decision-relevant findings are available yet.

Daily Updates

Daily snapshots across the full thesis map, weekly freezes, and the preserved map version.

Why the view is fragile

17pt model spread around 66% consensus. Open the full disagreement instrument only when you need the model-level reasoning.

Model disagreement

Model spread

17pt

55% to 72%

Consensus

66%

4 models

Evidence state

Contested

Material disagreement remains

Most divergent

GPT-4o

-11pt from consensus

Disagreement synthesis

The models share a central case but assign different weight to the evidence.

GPT-4o anchors the lower end at 55%, while Grok anchors the upper end at 72%. Consensus sits at 66%, leaving a 17 point range for review.

Primary review question

Changes in housing market conditions or unexpected shifts in economic policy could significantly influence CPI trends.

Shared probability axis

Range 55% to 72%

Consensus 66%

GPT-4o 55

Gemini 65

Claude 72

Grok 72

0255075100

ModelForecastVs consensusDivergenceReasoning signal

Model reasoning

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Reasoning

Given the current Federal funds target range of 3.50 to 3.75 percent and the June 2026 SEP indicating a median funds rate projection of 3.8 percent by year-end, inflation pressures may still be sustained, affecting shelter CPI. Additionally, with nine of eighteen SEP participants anticipating rates to rise above the current range, this suggests a likelihood of continued inflationary pressure potentially keeping shelter CPI above 4.0% year over year.

Key uncertainty

Changes in housing market conditions or unexpected shifts in economic policy could significantly influence CPI trends.

Deep dive

Full decomposition, component audit, trajectory, and detailed analytical views.

Deep dive

Detailed evidence, audit, and history views.

Open only what you need

Belief trajectoryConsensus 66% · 17pt spread

Belief trajectory0 updates

Belief trajectory

Consensus—

Spread—

Confidence—

Δ Consensus—

Loading belief trajectory…

Resolution & provenance

Resolution sources, record policy, cadence, and permanent record metadata.

Resolution and provenance

How the thesis resolves and how its record is maintained.

Permanent record

Resolution sources

Federal Reserve FOMC statementsimplementation notesSEPpress conference materialsofficial target rangeBLSBEAEIATreasuryFREDCME FedWatchmajor bank research

Record ID

CRENE-FED-WARSH-INF-010

Record policy

Append only

Freeze cadence

Thursdays

Generated

Sep 19, 2026

Back to thesis map Part ofWill the Federal Reserve raise the target range for the federal funds rate at any point during 2026?

Current eventInflation pressure

Will shelter CPI remain above 4.0% year over year in any H2 2026 release?

LiveResolves Dec 31, 2026

Current view

66%

Current 4 model consensus

Movement

Recent consensus movement

Model disagreement

17pt

Range across the model set

Evidence

Contested

Material disagreement remains

Thesis map

What is carrying or resisting the view?

Start with the map. Select a mechanism or condition to see what supports the thesis, what resists it, and where disagreement deserves review.

What changed

No decision-relevant findings are available yet.

Daily Updates

Daily snapshots across the full thesis map, weekly freezes, and the preserved map version.

Why the view is fragile

17pt model spread around 66% consensus. Open the full disagreement instrument only when you need the model-level reasoning.

Model disagreement

Model spread

17pt

55% to 72%

Consensus

66%

4 models

Evidence state

Contested

Material disagreement remains

Most divergent

GPT-4o

-11pt from consensus

Disagreement synthesis

The models share a central case but assign different weight to the evidence.

GPT-4o anchors the lower end at 55%, while Grok anchors the upper end at 72%. Consensus sits at 66%, leaving a 17 point range for review.

Primary review question

Changes in housing market conditions or unexpected shifts in economic policy could significantly influence CPI trends.

Shared probability axis

Range 55% to 72%

Consensus 66%

GPT-4o 55

Gemini 65

Claude 72

Grok 72

0255075100

ModelForecastVs consensusDivergenceReasoning signal

Model reasoning

Select a model to inspect

Reasoning

Key uncertainty

Changes in housing market conditions or unexpected shifts in economic policy could significantly influence CPI trends.

Deep dive

Full decomposition, component audit, trajectory, and detailed analytical views.

Deep dive

Detailed evidence, audit, and history views.

Open only what you need

Belief trajectoryConsensus 66% · 17pt spread

Belief trajectory0 updates

Belief trajectory

Consensus—

Spread—

Confidence—

Δ Consensus—

Loading belief trajectory…

Resolution & provenance

Resolution sources, record policy, cadence, and permanent record metadata.

Resolution and provenance

How the thesis resolves and how its record is maintained.

Permanent record

Resolution sources

Federal Reserve FOMC statementsimplementation notesSEPpress conference materialsofficial target rangeBLSBEAEIATreasuryFREDCME FedWatchmajor bank research

Record ID

CRENE-FED-WARSH-INF-010

Record policy

Append only

Freeze cadence

Thursdays

Generated

Sep 19, 2026