Will core goods CPI print positive year over year for at least three consecutive months in H2 2026?

The Federal Reserve's current monetary policy stance, with the federal funds target range at 3.50 to 3.75 percent and a median year end 2026 funds rate projection of 3.8 percent with nine participants projecting above the current range, suggests a restrictive environment. This elevated rate environment, coupled with the Fed's recent removal of a cutting bias, indicates a commitment to controlling inflation, making sustained positive core goods CPI prints in H2 2026 more probable than not as demand moderates.