Will core goods CPI print positive year over year for at least three consecutive months in H2 2026?

Core goods CPI has been structurally disinflationary since 2022 due to normalization of supply chains, moderating demand, and goods price deflation. For core goods to print positive year over year for three consecutive months in H2 2026, we would need either a significant demand shock, supply disruption, or currency depreciation. The Fed's current posture (rates held at 3.50 to 3.75 percent with nine of eighteen participants projecting rates above this level by year end) suggests a bias toward restraint rather than stimulus that would reignite goods inflation. Historical precedent shows core goods CPI has remained negative or barely positive throughout 2024 to mid 2026. While base effects could theoretically create one or two months of positive prints, sustaining three consecutive months would require a material reversal of the disinflationary goods backdrop that has persisted for years.