Will nonfarm payroll growth average at least 150,000 over any three-month window in H2 2026?

The Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate is currently 3.50 to 3.75 percent, unchanged since June 17, 2026. The June 2026 SEP median projection for the year end 2026 funds rate is 3.8 percent, with nine of eighteen participants projecting rates above the current range, indicating a hawkish stance. This suggests the Fed is likely to maintain restrictive monetary policy, which would typically temper job growth, but historically, nonfarm payroll growth has shown resilience even during periods of higher rates. While a 150,000 average monthly growth is a moderate pace, the underlying strength of the labor market coupled with the Fed's data dependent approach makes it achievable.