Will fed funds futures price at least 25bp of cumulative 2026 hikes for 10 consecutive trading days in H2 2026?

The question asks whether fed funds futures will price at least 25 basis points of cumulative 2026 hikes for 10 consecutive trading days in H2 2026. As of 2026-09-19, we are already in H2 2026 with only 103 trading days remaining in the year. The current fed funds target range is 3.50 to 3.75 percent (unchanged since June 17), and the June SEP median projects year end 2026 at 3.8 percent, implying only 5 to 30 basis points of additional tightening for the full year. Given that the FOMC has held rates steady since mid-June and Kevin Warsh's Fed has erased the prior cutting bias but shown no inclination toward hiking, futures markets would need to reprice significantly toward hikes. The bar for 25 basis points of priced hikes across any 10 consecutive trading days is relatively high given (1) the small gap between current rates and SEP median, (2) the late calendar position in 2026, and (3) the absence of forward guidance signaling imminent hikes. This event would require a substantial economic shock or inflation reacceleration to materialize within the remaining ~100 trading days.