Reasoning
The 10 year Treasury yield sits at 4.998 percent as of 2026-09-19, within 2 basis points of the 5.00 percent threshold, while the federal funds target range remains 3.50 to 3.75 percent and the June 2026 SEP median projects a year end 2026 funds rate of 3.8 percent. Nine of eighteen SEP participants see the year end rate above the current range, consistent with the removal of the prior cutting bias under Chair Kevin Warsh. Historical moves from this distance to above 5.00 percent within the final three and a half months of the year have occurred only when growth or inflation surprises exceed current consensus projections.Key uncertainty
The size and timing of any November or December 2026 FOMC decision to raise the target range.