Reasoning
The SEP median for year end 2026 already sits at 3.8 percent, above the current 3.50 to 3.75 percent target range, and nine of eighteen participants project an increase, yet the June 17 post meeting statement erased the prior cutting bias and Chair Warsh has shown no inclination to reopen easing. With the funds rate already at its highest level in a decade, the hurdle for any bank to call for a 2026 hike is elevated and historical patterns show that major dealer forecasts rarely diverge from the SEP median by more than 25 basis points within the same calendar year.Key uncertainty
Whether a single hot CPI or employment surprise in August or September would prompt any of the four banks to shift from the current 3.8 percent median to an explicit hike call.