Reasoning
As of September 19, 2026, only 11 days remain until September 30. The June 2026 SEP median for year end 2026 funds rate was 3.8 percent, only 5 to 30 basis points above the current 3.50 to 3.75 percent target range, suggesting minimal expectations for additional hikes this year. For a major bank to publish a base case calling for a hike by September 30, they would need to expect the FOMC to reverse course dramatically from the June 17 hold and shift hawkish stance within just 73 days, which contradicts the SEP guidance showing nine of eighteen participants projecting year end rates above current levels (implying the consensus path involves either a single modest hike or extended holds). The 11 day window provides little time for economic data to shift bank forecasts sufficiently to call for an imminent hike, and major banks typically revise their base cases gradually rather than making sharp reversals.Key uncertainty
Whether a significant negative economic shock (deflationary spiral, financial instability) or unexpected inflation spike in recent data would prompt a coordinated hawkish reassessment by these institutions, though such reversals from established base cases are historically rare within 11 day windows.