Will a major economist survey show the median respondent expecting a 2026 Fed hike at any point in H2 2026?

The SEP already projects a 2026 year end rate of 3.8 percent, 5 basis points above the current 3.50 to 3.75 percent target, and nine of eighteen participants already expect a higher year end rate. With the Fed on hold and Kevin Warsh having erased the prior cutting bias, any material upturn in inflation data would likely shift the median SEP higher for 2026 H2. Yet the modest 0.3 percentage point upward revision from March to June and the limited number of hawkish dots indicate that a full median hike signal in the September or December SEP remains unlikely.