Will prediction markets assign at least 40% probability to one or more Fed cuts in 2026 for 10 consecutive days after June 17?

The SEP median for year end 2026 moved from 3.4 percent in March to 3.8 percent in June, with nine of eighteen participants now projecting a year end rate above the current 3.50 to 3.75 percent target range, which signals persistent inflation concerns and a tighter policy bias under Chair Warsh. Historical precedent shows that once the median SEP projection rises above the current target range, markets rarely price a 40 percent chance of a cut within the same calendar year for more than a few days. With the next data dependent FOMC meetings scheduled after the June 17 hold, any sequence of ten consecutive trading days with at least 40 percent odds of a 2026 cut would require a material deterioration in labor market or inflation data that is not yet visible.