Will prediction markets assign at least 40% probability to one or more Fed cuts in 2026 for 10 consecutive days after June 17?

The current 3.50 to 3.75 percent target range and the June 2026 SEP median of 3.8 percent already price in a higher year end rate than the March 2026 SEP median of 3.4 percent, so the baseline path leaves little room for a 2026 easing cycle. Historical base rates show that once the median dot plot rises above the current target, the probability of an intra year reversal toward cuts falls sharply. Recent statements from Chair Warsh and the June 17 post meeting bias removal reinforce a higher for longer stance that markets would need sustained data weakness to overcome.