Will the dominant market narrative shift back toward cuts before the September FOMC meeting?

The SEP median for year end 2026 rose from 3.4 percent in March to 3.8 percent in June, nine of eighteen participants now project the year end rate above the current 3.50 to 3.75 percent range, and Chair Warsh's June 17 decision erased the prior cutting bias. These signals plus the unchanged target range since June imply the FOMC is unlikely to reintroduce a cut expectation before September absent a sharp deterioration in data. Historical precedent shows the Fed rarely reverses course on a hawkish dot plot within a single intermeeting period.