Will the FOMC raise the federal funds target range at any remaining 2026 meeting? | Crene

Back to thesis map Part ofWill the Federal Reserve raise the target range for the federal funds rate at any point during 2026?

Current eventDirect policy path

Will the FOMC raise the federal funds target range at any remaining 2026 meeting?

LiveResolves Dec 9, 2026

Current view

40%

Current 4 model consensus

Movement

Recent consensus movement

Model disagreement

48pt

Range across the model set

Evidence

Diverging

The evidence is sharply disputed

Thesis map

What is carrying or resisting the view?

Start with the map. Select a mechanism or condition to see what supports the thesis, what resists it, and where disagreement deserves review.

What changed

No decision-relevant findings are available yet.

Daily Updates

Daily snapshots across the full thesis map, weekly freezes, and the preserved map version.

Why the view is fragile

48pt model spread around 40% consensus. Open the full disagreement instrument only when you need the model-level reasoning.

Model disagreement

Model spread

48pt

22% to 70%

Consensus

40%

4 models

Evidence state

Diverging

Models sharply disagree

Most divergent

GPT-4o

+30pt from consensus

Disagreement synthesis

The models share a central case but assign different weight to the evidence.

Grok anchors the lower end at 22%, while GPT-4o anchors the upper end at 70%. Consensus sits at 40%, leaving a 48 point range for review.

Primary review question

The impact of incoming economic data on inflation and growth could alter the committee's decision-making process leading into the next meetings.

Shared probability axis

Range 22% to 70%

Consensus 40%

Grok 22

Claude 28

Gemini 40

GPT-4o 70

0255075100

ModelForecastVs consensusDivergenceReasoning signal

Model reasoning

Select a model to inspect

Reasoning

The Federal Open Market Committee has held the federal funds target range at 3.50 to 3.75 percent since June 17, 2026. However, with the June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections indicating a median funds rate projection of 3.8 percent by year-end and nine of eighteen participants expecting rates above the current range, there is substantial support within the committee for an increase. Additionally, the removal of the prior cutting bias suggests a shift in policy stance that favors potential rate hikes.

Key uncertainty

The impact of incoming economic data on inflation and growth could alter the committee's decision-making process leading into the next meetings.

Deep dive

Full decomposition, component audit, trajectory, and detailed analytical views.

Deep dive

Detailed evidence, audit, and history views.

Open only what you need

Belief trajectoryConsensus 40% · 48pt spread

Belief trajectory0 updates

Belief trajectory

Consensus—

Spread—

Confidence—

Δ Consensus—

Loading belief trajectory…

Resolution & provenance

Resolution sources, record policy, cadence, and permanent record metadata.

Resolution and provenance

How the thesis resolves and how its record is maintained.

Permanent record

Resolution sources

Federal Reserve FOMC statementsimplementation notesSEPpress conference materialsofficial target rangeBLSBEAEIATreasuryFREDCME FedWatchmajor bank research

Record ID

CRENE-FED-WARSH-POL-001

Record policy

Append only

Freeze cadence

Thursdays

Generated

Sep 19, 2026

Back to thesis map Part ofWill the Federal Reserve raise the target range for the federal funds rate at any point during 2026?

Current eventDirect policy path

Will the FOMC raise the federal funds target range at any remaining 2026 meeting?

LiveResolves Dec 9, 2026

Current view

40%

Current 4 model consensus

Movement

Recent consensus movement

Model disagreement

48pt

Range across the model set

Evidence

Diverging

The evidence is sharply disputed

Thesis map

What is carrying or resisting the view?

Start with the map. Select a mechanism or condition to see what supports the thesis, what resists it, and where disagreement deserves review.

What changed

No decision-relevant findings are available yet.

Daily Updates

Daily snapshots across the full thesis map, weekly freezes, and the preserved map version.

Why the view is fragile

48pt model spread around 40% consensus. Open the full disagreement instrument only when you need the model-level reasoning.

Model disagreement

Model spread

48pt

22% to 70%

Consensus

40%

4 models

Evidence state

Diverging

Models sharply disagree

Most divergent

GPT-4o

+30pt from consensus

Disagreement synthesis

The models share a central case but assign different weight to the evidence.

Grok anchors the lower end at 22%, while GPT-4o anchors the upper end at 70%. Consensus sits at 40%, leaving a 48 point range for review.

Primary review question

The impact of incoming economic data on inflation and growth could alter the committee's decision-making process leading into the next meetings.

Shared probability axis

Range 22% to 70%

Consensus 40%

Grok 22

Claude 28

Gemini 40

GPT-4o 70

0255075100

ModelForecastVs consensusDivergenceReasoning signal

Model reasoning

Select a model to inspect

Reasoning

Key uncertainty

The impact of incoming economic data on inflation and growth could alter the committee's decision-making process leading into the next meetings.

Deep dive

Full decomposition, component audit, trajectory, and detailed analytical views.

Deep dive

Detailed evidence, audit, and history views.

Open only what you need

Belief trajectoryConsensus 40% · 48pt spread

Belief trajectory0 updates

Belief trajectory

Consensus—

Spread—

Confidence—

Δ Consensus—

Loading belief trajectory…

Resolution & provenance

Resolution sources, record policy, cadence, and permanent record metadata.

Resolution and provenance

How the thesis resolves and how its record is maintained.

Permanent record

Resolution sources

Federal Reserve FOMC statementsimplementation notesSEPpress conference materialsofficial target rangeBLSBEAEIATreasuryFREDCME FedWatchmajor bank research

Record ID

CRENE-FED-WARSH-POL-001

Record policy

Append only

Freeze cadence

Thursdays

Generated

Sep 19, 2026