Will the FOMC raise the federal funds target range by 50bp or more cumulatively after June 17, 2026?

The FOMC has held rates at 3.50 to 3.75 percent since June 17, 2026, and the June 2026 SEP median projects year end 2026 funds rate at 3.8 percent, implying only 5 to 30 basis points of cumulative action after June 17. The question requires 50 basis points or more of increases, which would require the FOMC to move substantially above its own median projection and reverse the shift away from cutting bias that was evident at the June 17 meeting. Nine of eighteen SEP participants project above current range by year end, suggesting minority support for tightening. Given that Chair Warsh held rates in June and the median projection shows minimal further increases, a 50 basis point cumulative hike would represent a significant and unexpected policy reversal that contradicts the current consensus view reflected in the dot plot.