Will the FOMC hold rates unchanged at all four remaining 2026 meetings?

As of August 5, 2026, the FOMC faces four remaining meetings (September, November, December, and one additional session). The June SEP median projects year end 2026 at 3.8 percent versus the current 3.50 to 3.75 percent range, with nine of eighteen participants forecasting above current levels, indicating hawkish bias in the Committee's own projections. Chair Warsh erased the cutting bias on June 17, signaling a shift toward potential hikes rather than cuts. Historical precedent shows that when the Fed projects rate increases in the SEP and removes dovish guidance, the probability of maintaining a hold across all four remaining meetings is low; the Committee typically follows through on its own median projections within the same calendar year, particularly when inflation or growth dynamics warrant it. The explicit upward revision of the year end dot plot from March (3.4 percent) to June (3.8 percent) suggests economic data or inflation expectations deteriorated, making a complete hold through year end inconsistent with the Committee's own stated path.