Will the upper bound of the federal funds target range end 2026 at 4.00% or higher?

The current target range of 3.50 to 3.75 percent and the June 2026 SEP median of 3.8 percent already place the year end 2026 rate below the 4.00 percent threshold. The nine of eighteen participants projecting above the current range still leave nine at or below it, and Chair Warsh's June 17 hold without a cutting bias signals caution rather than a push toward higher rates. Historical base rates show that once the Fed reaches a neutral stance, subsequent year end adjustments rarely exceed 25 to 50 basis points in the absence of accelerating inflation.