Will the upper bound of the federal funds target range end 2026 at 4.00% or higher? | Crene

Back to thesis map Part ofWill the Federal Reserve raise the target range for the federal funds rate at any point during 2026?

Current eventDirect policy path

Will the upper bound of the federal funds target range end 2026 at 4.00% or higher?

LiveResolves Dec 31, 2026

Current view

66%

Current 4 model consensus

Movement

Recent consensus movement

Model disagreement

12pt

Range across the model set

Evidence

Contested

Material disagreement remains

Thesis map

What is carrying or resisting the view?

Start with the map. Select a mechanism or condition to see what supports the thesis, what resists it, and where disagreement deserves review.

What changed

No decision-relevant findings are available yet.

Daily Updates

Daily snapshots across the full thesis map, weekly freezes, and the preserved map version.

Why the view is fragile

12pt model spread around 66% consensus. Open the full disagreement instrument only when you need the model-level reasoning.

Model disagreement

Model spread

12pt

60% to 72%

Consensus

66%

4 models

Evidence state

Contested

Material disagreement remains

Most divergent

GPT-4o

-6pt from consensus

Disagreement synthesis

The models share a central case but assign different weight to the evidence.

GPT-4o anchors the lower end at 60%, while Claude anchors the upper end at 72%. Consensus sits at 66%, leaving a 12 point range for review.

Primary review question

Inflation trajectory and economic growth rates, which could lead to a shift in monetary policy.

Shared probability axis

Range 60% to 72%

Consensus 66%

GPT-4o 60

Gemini 65

Grok 67

Claude 72

0255075100

ModelForecastVs consensusDivergenceReasoning signal

Model reasoning

Select a model to inspect

Reasoning

The current federal funds target range is 3.50 to 3.75 percent, with the June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections indicating a median year-end rate of 3.8 percent. Additionally, nine out of eighteen SEP participants predict a rate above the current target range, suggesting a significant probability of a rate hike. However, economic conditions and inflation trends remain uncertain, which could limit the Federal Reserve's willingness to raise rates aggressively by year-end.

Key uncertainty

Inflation trajectory and economic growth rates, which could lead to a shift in monetary policy.

Deep dive

Full decomposition, component audit, trajectory, and detailed analytical views.

Deep dive

Detailed evidence, audit, and history views.

Open only what you need

Belief trajectoryConsensus 66% · 12pt spread

Belief trajectory0 updates

Belief trajectory

Consensus—

Spread—

Confidence—

Δ Consensus—

Loading belief trajectory…

Resolution & provenance

Resolution sources, record policy, cadence, and permanent record metadata.

Resolution and provenance

How the thesis resolves and how its record is maintained.

Permanent record

Resolution sources

Federal Reserve FOMC statementsimplementation notesSEPpress conference materialsofficial target rangeBLSBEAEIATreasuryFREDCME FedWatchmajor bank research

Record ID

CRENE-FED-WARSH-POL-005

Record policy

Append only

Freeze cadence

Thursdays

Generated

Sep 19, 2026

Back to thesis map Part ofWill the Federal Reserve raise the target range for the federal funds rate at any point during 2026?

Current eventDirect policy path

Will the upper bound of the federal funds target range end 2026 at 4.00% or higher?

LiveResolves Dec 31, 2026

Current view

66%

Current 4 model consensus

Movement

Recent consensus movement

Model disagreement

12pt

Range across the model set

Evidence

Contested

Material disagreement remains

Thesis map

What is carrying or resisting the view?

Start with the map. Select a mechanism or condition to see what supports the thesis, what resists it, and where disagreement deserves review.

What changed

No decision-relevant findings are available yet.

Daily Updates

Daily snapshots across the full thesis map, weekly freezes, and the preserved map version.

Why the view is fragile

12pt model spread around 66% consensus. Open the full disagreement instrument only when you need the model-level reasoning.

Model disagreement

Model spread

12pt

60% to 72%

Consensus

66%

4 models

Evidence state

Contested

Material disagreement remains

Most divergent

GPT-4o

-6pt from consensus

Disagreement synthesis

The models share a central case but assign different weight to the evidence.

GPT-4o anchors the lower end at 60%, while Claude anchors the upper end at 72%. Consensus sits at 66%, leaving a 12 point range for review.

Primary review question

Inflation trajectory and economic growth rates, which could lead to a shift in monetary policy.

Shared probability axis

Range 60% to 72%

Consensus 66%

GPT-4o 60

Gemini 65

Grok 67

Claude 72

0255075100

ModelForecastVs consensusDivergenceReasoning signal

Model reasoning

Select a model to inspect

Reasoning

Key uncertainty

Inflation trajectory and economic growth rates, which could lead to a shift in monetary policy.

Deep dive

Full decomposition, component audit, trajectory, and detailed analytical views.

Deep dive

Detailed evidence, audit, and history views.

Open only what you need

Belief trajectoryConsensus 66% · 12pt spread

Belief trajectory0 updates

Belief trajectory

Consensus—

Spread—

Confidence—

Δ Consensus—

Loading belief trajectory…

Resolution & provenance

Resolution sources, record policy, cadence, and permanent record metadata.

Resolution and provenance

How the thesis resolves and how its record is maintained.

Permanent record

Resolution sources

Federal Reserve FOMC statementsimplementation notesSEPpress conference materialsofficial target rangeBLSBEAEIATreasuryFREDCME FedWatchmajor bank research

Record ID

CRENE-FED-WARSH-POL-005

Record policy

Append only

Freeze cadence

Thursdays

Generated

Sep 19, 2026