Reasoning
The December 2026 meeting is the final scheduled FOMC meeting of the year and the current 3.50 to 3.75 percent target range is already 30 basis points below the June 2026 SEP median projection of 3.8 percent. Nine of eighteen participants signaled an intention to finish 2026 above the present range, and the June 17 meeting eliminated any residual easing bias under Chair Warsh. With inflation data still only partially aligned to the 2 percent goal and unemployment still below the SEP long run estimate, the bar for a late-year hike remains high.Key uncertainty
A sharper than expected slowdown in third quarter payroll growth or an abrupt rise in financial market stress could shift the Committee toward holding rates rather than hiking.