Will the FOMC make its first post-June rate move in the direction of a hike rather than a cut?

The June 2026 SEP median of 3.8 percent sits only 5 basis points above the current 3.50 to 3.75 percent range, and nine of eighteen participants already project a higher year end rate, yet Chair Warsh's decision to erase the prior cutting bias without introducing a hike bias signals caution rather than urgency. With the funds rate stable since June 17 and inflation data still contained, historical precedents show that the first post pause move is more often a cut than a hike once the policy rate has already been lifted above the long run neutral estimate.