Will the FOMC make its first post-June rate move in the direction of a hike rather than a cut?

The FOMC has held the 3.50 to 3.75 percent range since June 17 and the June SEP median projects a year end 2026 rate of 3.8 percent with nine of eighteen participants seeing a higher terminal rate, indicating a modest tightening bias rather than outright hikes. Chair Warsh's decision to drop the prior easing tilt and keep policy unchanged signals that the Committee views current conditions as near equilibrium, so the next move is more likely to be a resumption of cuts than a reversal to hikes. Historical base rates show the Fed rarely hikes without clear reacceleration in inflation or labor markets, neither of which is evident in the post June data environment.