Will the FOMC end 2026 with a more restrictive target range than the one in effect after the June 17 meeting?

As of mid September 2026, the FOMC has held the target range at 3.50 to 3.75 percent since June 17, maintaining a restrictive stance. For the range to be "more restrictive" (higher) by year end, at least one additional rate hike would be needed. However, the June SEP median projection of 3.8 percent year end funds rate suggests the Committee expected modest further tightening at that time. The fact that only nine of eighteen participants projected rates above the current range indicates dovish sentiment within the Committee. Given that we are now approximately 3.5 months from year end with no rate increases since June, momentum appears to be against further hikes. Historical patterns show that FOMC decisions reflect economic data flows; absent significant inflation reacceleration or financial stability concerns emerging in the subsequent months, the baseline case would be for rates to remain unchanged through December.