Will any of Warsh's announced Fed review workstreams publish formal findings or recommendations before December 31, 2026? | Crene

Back to thesis map Part ofWill the Federal Reserve raise the target range for the federal funds rate at any point during 2026?

Current eventWarsh institutional reset

Will any of Warsh's announced Fed review workstreams publish formal findings or recommendations before December 31, 2026?

LiveResolves Dec 31, 2026

Current view

57%

Current 4 model consensus

Movement

Recent consensus movement

Model disagreement

47pt

Range across the model set

Evidence

Diverging

The evidence is sharply disputed

Thesis map

What is carrying or resisting the view?

Start with the map. Select a mechanism or condition to see what supports the thesis, what resists it, and where disagreement deserves review.

What changed

No decision-relevant findings are available yet.

Daily Updates

Daily snapshots across the full thesis map, weekly freezes, and the preserved map version.

Why the view is fragile

47pt model spread around 57% consensus. Open the full disagreement instrument only when you need the model-level reasoning.

Model disagreement

Model spread

47pt

28% to 75%

Consensus

57%

4 models

Evidence state

Diverging

Models sharply disagree

Most divergent

Claude

-29pt from consensus

Disagreement synthesis

The models share a central case but assign different weight to the evidence.

Claude anchors the lower end at 28%, while Grok anchors the upper end at 75%. Consensus sits at 57%, leaving a 47 point range for review.

Primary review question

Not specified

Shared probability axis

Range 28% to 75%

Consensus 57%

Claude 28

Gemini 60

GPT-4o 65

Grok 75

0255075100

ModelForecastVs consensusDivergenceReasoning signal

Model reasoning

Select a model to inspect

Reasoning

[ANY OF WARSH'S ANNOUNCED FED REVIEW WORKSTREAMS PUBLISH FORMAL FINDINGS OR RECOMMENDATIONS] While the 0% market price reflects real barriers to formal Fed publication, there is meaningful probability that Warsh's workstreams produce

Key uncertainty

Not specified

Deep dive

Full decomposition, component audit, trajectory, and detailed analytical views.

Deep dive

Detailed evidence, audit, and history views.

Open only what you need

Belief trajectoryConsensus 57% · 47pt spread

Belief trajectory0 updates

Belief trajectory

Consensus—

Spread—

Confidence—

Δ Consensus—

Loading belief trajectory…

Resolution & provenance

Resolution sources, record policy, cadence, and permanent record metadata.

Resolution and provenance

How the thesis resolves and how its record is maintained.

Permanent record

Resolution sources

Federal Reserve FOMC statementsimplementation notesSEPpress conference materialsofficial target rangeBLSBEAEIATreasuryFREDCME FedWatchmajor bank research

Record ID

CRENE-FED-WARSH-REG-001

Record policy

Append only

Freeze cadence

Thursdays

Generated

Sep 19, 2026

Back to thesis map Part ofWill the Federal Reserve raise the target range for the federal funds rate at any point during 2026?

Current eventWarsh institutional reset

Will any of Warsh's announced Fed review workstreams publish formal findings or recommendations before December 31, 2026?

LiveResolves Dec 31, 2026

Current view

57%

Current 4 model consensus

Movement

Recent consensus movement

Model disagreement

47pt

Range across the model set

Evidence

Diverging

The evidence is sharply disputed

Thesis map

What is carrying or resisting the view?

Start with the map. Select a mechanism or condition to see what supports the thesis, what resists it, and where disagreement deserves review.

What changed

No decision-relevant findings are available yet.

Daily Updates

Daily snapshots across the full thesis map, weekly freezes, and the preserved map version.

Why the view is fragile

47pt model spread around 57% consensus. Open the full disagreement instrument only when you need the model-level reasoning.

Model disagreement

Model spread

47pt

28% to 75%

Consensus

57%

4 models

Evidence state

Diverging

Models sharply disagree

Most divergent

Claude

-29pt from consensus

Disagreement synthesis

The models share a central case but assign different weight to the evidence.

Claude anchors the lower end at 28%, while Grok anchors the upper end at 75%. Consensus sits at 57%, leaving a 47 point range for review.

Primary review question

Not specified

Shared probability axis

Range 28% to 75%

Consensus 57%

Claude 28

Gemini 60

GPT-4o 65

Grok 75

0255075100

ModelForecastVs consensusDivergenceReasoning signal

Model reasoning

Select a model to inspect

Reasoning

Key uncertainty

Not specified

Deep dive

Full decomposition, component audit, trajectory, and detailed analytical views.

Deep dive

Detailed evidence, audit, and history views.

Open only what you need

Belief trajectoryConsensus 57% · 47pt spread

Belief trajectory0 updates

Belief trajectory

Consensus—

Spread—

Confidence—

Δ Consensus—

Loading belief trajectory…

Resolution & provenance

Resolution sources, record policy, cadence, and permanent record metadata.

Resolution and provenance

How the thesis resolves and how its record is maintained.

Permanent record

Resolution sources

Federal Reserve FOMC statementsimplementation notesSEPpress conference materialsofficial target rangeBLSBEAEIATreasuryFREDCME FedWatchmajor bank research

Record ID

CRENE-FED-WARSH-REG-001

Record policy

Append only

Freeze cadence

Thursdays

Generated

Sep 19, 2026