Reasoning
The Federal funds target range has been held steady at 3.50 to 3.75 percent since the June 17, 2026 FOMC meeting, and the June 2026 SEP median forecast for the year end 2026 funds rate has significantly increased to 3.8 percent from 3.4 percent in March 2026. With nine of eighteen SEP participants projecting rates above the current range by year end, and the Fed Chair Kevin Warsh having erased the prior cutting bias, there is a strong likelihood of a dissenting vote by Jerome Powell in favor of a rate hike or a continued tight policy stance as the committee debates future policy path in a potentially inflationary environment.Key uncertainty
The precise inflation data and employment figures released between now and any potential dissenting vote will heavily influence Powell's decision.