S&P 500 close, year-end 2026
What will the S&P 500 Index (SPX) official close be on the final trading day of 2026?
spread ±675
90% interval
width ±3,030
The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on p50: confidence reflects cross-model spread relative to scale, the p5—p95 band shows the 90% interval each model collectively places, models shows whether the four agree on shape.
Latest distribution
Belief trajectory
Cross-model percentile distribution over time. Outer band p5—p95, inner band p25—p75, line p50. Repolled daily at 06:35 server time.
Per-model distributions
Each model forecasts the quintile distribution independently. The Crene aggregate is the median of each percentile across these four models.
TODAY=7400; BAND=-25% to +35%; P50_LOGIC=+7% drift reflects stable macro, moderating growth, typical H2 seasonality without regime break.; TAILS=Upside driven by Fed cuts+AI acceleration; downside by unexpected recession/shock.
TODAY=7412; BAND=[-25% to +35%]; P50_LOGIC=Given the current value, moderate growth is expected through the end of 2026, accounting for potential fluctuations in the market. TAILS=Extreme scenarios could arise from macroeconomic shifts, such as significant interest rate hikes or a surprising recession, which may pressure the index downwards or robust earnings and economic growth boosting it upwards.
TODAY=7412; BAND=[-0.25, 0.35]; P50_LOGIC=P50 is slightly below the current observed value reflecting some normalization from current highs, but still bullish given ongoing tech innovation; TAILS=A severe global recession or geopolitical crisis would drive the low end, while an unprecedented productivity boom would drive the high end.
TODAY=7412; BAND=-25% to +35%; P50_LOGIC=Anchored at current 7412 with modest positive drift within normal equity move band. TAILS=Left tail driven by recession or policy shock; right tail by continued AI-driven earnings growth.
Resolution
Resolved value is the official S&P 500 closing index level on the final regular trading session of calendar year 2026, in index points.