Current factorEQUITY_INDEX · SP500_INDEX_LEVEL

What will the S&P 500 Index (SPX) official close be on the final trading day of 2026?

LiveSeries · S&P 500 close, year-end 2026Horizon Dec 31, 20264 model distributionLast update Aug 18, 2026

p50

7,536

Current cross-model median

90% interval

6,235 → 8,900

Current p5 to p95 range

Model agreement

MEDIUM

Stored tier · dispersion ±342

Model dispersion

±342

Across the four model medians

Factor map

Where is uncertainty concentrated?

Crene surfaces the drivers that deserve attention first, then shows where they sit across the factor map. Distance reflects confidence and node size reflects model disagreement.

Driver constellationsector = domain· inner to outer = higher to lower confidence· bigger = more model disagreement

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Inspector

Select a driver in the constellation to see its distribution, where the four models disagree, and its reasoning. Each driver is itself a factor you can open.

Current distribution

Where the factor lands

The current ensemble distribution across the factor horizon, with the median separated from the uncertainty band.

HorizonDec 31, 2026

Last updateAug 18, 2026

Interval breadthModerate

Observations100

Current read

The ensemble median sits at 7,536 with a collective 90% interval of 6,235 to 8,900. The p5 to p95 span is 2,665. Model-median dispersion is ±342. The factor resolves at the Dec 31, 2026 horizon.

6,235

p25

6,988

p50

7,536

p75

8,000

p95

8,900

p5 6,235p25 to p75p95 8,900

Driver review

Review the ranked driver queue

The Factor Map surfaces the first-pass priorities above. Open the full ranked queue only when you need the underlying driver metrics and data-quality detail.

Ranked review queueScale-adjusted disagreement, uncertainty, confidence, and data-quality flags.Open

Recent p50 move

−215

Versus 7 polls earlier

Recent band change

−1,285

Tighter · versus 7 polls earlier

Largest driver split

—

No current driver observation

Review queue

Reading current drivers

Drivers to review

Review disagreement, uncertainty, and data quality before opening the full driver audit.

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Belief trajectory

How the range has moved

The ensemble median and percentile bands across the available polling window.

Crene trajectory read

The center is moving lower at 7,536, while the uncertainty band is tightening. The current 90% band is 2,665 wide.

Current p50

7,536

Current ensemble median

7-poll move

−215

Center moved lower

Band width

2,665

Current p5 to p95 range

Band state

Tightening

−1,285 versus 7 polls ago

Latest is shown first. Swipe left to inspect earlier polls.

Consensus p50

p5 to p95

p25 to p75

Claude

GPT-4o

Gemini

Grok

Deep dive

Open frozen review records and the full factor machinery only when needed.

History and technical audit

Review historyCurrent selected

Technical factor audit3 audit layers

Resolution and provenance

The factor resolves against named source series and preserves the unit, horizon, and latest generated record used in review.

CRENE-FACTOR-SPX-EOY2026

Resolution criteria

Resolved value is the official S&P 500 closing index level on the final regular trading session of calendar year 2026, in index points.

Primary · spglobal · SPX Verification · cboe · SPX

Factor ID

CRENE-FACTOR-SPX-EOY2026

Unit

Index points

Horizon

Dec 31, 2026

Latest record

Aug 18, 2026