US 10Y Treasury Yield, year-end 2026
What will the US 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield be at the last Treasury market close of 2026?
spread ±0.37%
90% interval
width ±2.30%
The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on p50: confidence reflects cross-model spread relative to scale, the p5—p95 band shows the 90% interval each model collectively places, models shows whether the four agree on shape.
Latest distribution
Belief trajectory
Cross-model percentile distribution over time. Outer band p5—p95, inner band p25—p75, line p50. Repolled daily at 06:35 server time.
Per-model distributions
Each model forecasts the quintile distribution independently. The Crene aggregate is the median of each percentile across these four models.
TODAY=4.2%; BAND=2.7–5.7% (±150bp); P50_LOGIC=Modest 20bp decline reflects moderate Fed easing through H2 2026 balanced by persistent inflation and fiscal headwinds; TAILS=Recession scenario (P5) vs. inflation persistence and hawkish surprise (P95) bracket outcomes well outside consensus.
TODAY=3.00; BAND=[1.50, 1.50]; P50_LOGIC=Based on a moderate increase in inflation expectations and Fed policies, my P50 reflects a 50bp rise from today. TAILS=Severe economic shocks could drive yields lower, while strong growth or persistent inflation could push them higher.
TODAY=4.15; BAND=[-1.00,+1.00]; P50_LOGIC=Upward pressure from persistent inflation and hawkish Fed. TAILS=Sharp downturn in inflation/growth for P5, sustained inflation shock for P95.
TODAY=4.25; BAND=-150bp to +150bp; P50_LOGIC=Modest easing cycle offset by sticky inflation and fiscal supply keeps yield near current levels. TAILS=Deep recession drives P5; reacceleration or fiscal dominance drives P95.
Resolution
Resolved value is the constant maturity 10-year Treasury yield as reported on the H.15 release for the last trading day of calendar year 2026, in percent annualized.