Current factorRATES · TREASURY_YIELD_10Y

What will the US 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield be at the last Treasury market close of 2026?

LiveSeries · US 10Y Treasury Yield, year-end 2026Horizon Dec 31, 20264 model distributionLast update Sep 7, 2026

p50

4.05%

Current cross-model median

90% interval

2.80% → 5.10%

Current p5 to p95 range

Model agreement

MEDIUM

Stored tier · dispersion ±0.41 pp

Model dispersion

±0.41 pp

Across the four model medians

Factor map

Where is uncertainty concentrated?

Crene surfaces the drivers that deserve attention first, then shows where they sit across the factor map. Distance reflects confidence and node size reflects model disagreement.

QuestionWhich drivers concentrate the uncertainty around this factor?

Current answerLoading the governed driver record.

Driver constellationsector = domain· inner to outer = higher to lower confidence· bigger = more model disagreement

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Inspector

Select a driver in the constellation to see its distribution, where the four models disagree, and its reasoning. Each driver is itself a factor you can open.

Current distribution

Where the factor lands

The current ensemble distribution across the factor horizon, with the median separated from the uncertainty band.

HorizonDec 31, 2026

Last updateSep 7, 2026

Interval breadthWide

Observations100

Current read

The ensemble median sits at 4.05% with a collective 90% interval of 2.80% to 5.10%. The p5 to p95 span is 2.30 pp. Model-median dispersion is ±0.41 pp. The factor resolves at the Dec 31, 2026 horizon.

2.80%

p25

3.50%

p50

4.05%

p75

4.60%

p95

5.10%

p5 2.80%p25 to p75p95 5.10%

Driver review

Review the ranked driver queue

The Factor Map surfaces the first-pass priorities above. Open the full ranked queue only when you need the underlying driver metrics and data-quality detail.

Ranked review queueScale-adjusted disagreement, uncertainty, confidence, and data-quality flags.Open

Recent p50 move

+0.20 pp

Versus 7 polls earlier

Recent band change

−0.05 pp

Tighter · versus 7 polls earlier

Largest driver split

—

No current driver observation

Review queue

Reading current drivers

Drivers to review

Review disagreement, uncertainty, and data quality before opening the full driver audit.

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Belief trajectory

How the range has moved

The ensemble median and percentile bands across the available polling window.

Crene trajectory read

The center is moving higher at 4.05%, while the uncertainty band is broadly unchanged. The current 90% band is 2.30 pp wide.

Current p50

4.05%

Current ensemble median

7-poll move

+0.20 pp

Center moved higher

Band width

2.30 pp

Current p5 to p95 range

Band state

Stable

−0.05 pp versus 7 polls ago

Distribution trajectory

Consensus range and stored model medians

QuestionHow has the factor estimate moved, and how much uncertainty remains?

Current answerThe median moved higher by 0.30 pp to 4.05%. The current 90% range is 2.30 pp wide.

Inspect firstSep 7, 9:35 PM · MEDIUM confidence · p5–p95 2.80% to 5.10%

Latest is in view. Swipe horizontally to inspect earlier polls.

Consensus p50

p5 to p95

p25 to p75

Claude 3.95%

GPT-4o 3.00%

Gemini 4.50%

Grok 4.15%

Deep dive

Open frozen review records and the full factor machinery only when needed.

History and technical audit

Review historyCurrent selected

Review by week

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Technical factor audit3 audit layers

Resolution and provenance

The factor resolves against named source series and preserves the unit, horizon, and latest generated record used in review.

CRENE-FACTOR-UST10Y-EOY2026

Resolution criteria

Resolved value is the constant maturity 10-year Treasury yield as reported on the H.15 release for the last trading day of calendar year 2026, in percent annualized.

Primary · frbny · h15.dgs10 Verification · fred · DGS10

Factor ID

CRENE-FACTOR-UST10Y-EOY2026

Unit

Percent

Horizon

Dec 31, 2026

Latest record

Sep 7, 2026