US Adults With No Close Human Friendships, 2030
What percentage of US adults will report having no close human friendships by 2030?
spread ±3.71%
90% interval
width ±11.50%
The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on p50: confidence reflects cross-model spread relative to scale, the p5—p95 band shows the 90% interval each model collectively places, models shows whether the four agree on shape.
Latest distribution
Belief trajectory
Cross-model percentile distribution over time. Outer band p5—p95, inner band p25—p75, line p50. Repolled daily at 06:35 server time.
Per-model distributions
Each model forecasts the quintile distribution independently. The Crene aggregate is the median of each percentile across these four models.
** TODAY=12%; BAND=±7.5pp; P50_LOGIC=Modest deterioration from structural tech/work trends, partially offset by post-pandemic rebound in in-person socializing.; TAILS=P5 driven by strong social recovery and policy interventions on loneliness; P95 driven by deepening remote-work entrenchment, continued digital substitution, and economic stress reducing leisure time.
TODAY=20%; BAND=[15% to 35%]; P50_LOGIC=Estimated percentage of US adults with no close friendships is based on recent trends indicating rising loneliness and disconnection. TAILS=Extremes could be driven by significant cultural shifts, economic downturns, or worsening social media impacts on real-life relationships.
TODAY=12.0; BAND=[-5%, +10% annually]; P50_LOGIC=Projecting a gradual increase in reported lack of close friendships based on recent trends. TAILS=P5 assumes stabilization or slight decline; P95 assumes a rapid acceleration in social isolation.
TODAY=9.5; BAND=±4pp typical, +8pp crisis; P50_LOGIC=Gradual rise from loneliness epidemic plus remote-work effects yields +3pp net. TAILS=22% if deep prolonged recession and 6.5% if strong social rebound post-pandemic.
Resolution
Resolved against the Survey Center on American Life annual survey question on number of close friends, using the percentage reporting zero close friends. Cross-referenced with Gallup Social Series and General Social Survey if available.