Current factorAI_ECONOMICS · GDP_CONTRIBUTION

What percentage of US GDP will be directly attributable to AI systems by 2030?

LiveSeries · US GDP Directly Attributable to AI Systems, 2030Horizon Dec 31, 20304 model distributionLast update Aug 18, 2026

p50

4.5000%

Current cross-model median

90% interval

1.5000% → 8.5000%

Current p5 to p95 range

Model agreement

MEDIUM

Stored tier · dispersion ±1.04 pp

Model dispersion

±1.04 pp

Across the four model medians

Factor map

Where is uncertainty concentrated?

Crene surfaces the drivers that deserve attention first, then shows where they sit across the factor map. Distance reflects confidence and node size reflects model disagreement.

Driver constellationsector = domain· inner to outer = higher to lower confidence· bigger = more model disagreement

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Inspector

Select a driver in the constellation to see its distribution, where the four models disagree, and its reasoning. Each driver is itself a factor you can open.

Current distribution

Where the factor lands

The current ensemble distribution across the factor horizon, with the median separated from the uncertainty band.

HorizonDec 31, 2030

Last updateAug 18, 2026

Interval breadthWide

Observations100

Current read

The ensemble median sits at 4.5000% with a collective 90% interval of 1.5000% to 8.5000%. The p5 to p95 span is 7.00 pp. Model-median dispersion is ±1.04 pp. The factor resolves at the Dec 31, 2030 horizon.

1.5000%

p25

2.7500%

p50

4.5000%

p75

6.5000%

p95

8.5000%

p5 1.5000%p25 to p75p95 8.5000%

Driver review

Review the ranked driver queue

The Factor Map surfaces the first-pass priorities above. Open the full ranked queue only when you need the underlying driver metrics and data-quality detail.

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Recent p50 move

−3.30 pp

Versus 7 polls earlier

Recent band change

−2.90 pp

Tighter · versus 7 polls earlier

Largest driver split

—

No current driver observation

Review queue

Reading current drivers

Drivers to review

Review disagreement, uncertainty, and data quality before opening the full driver audit.

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Belief trajectory

How the range has moved

The ensemble median and percentile bands across the available polling window.

Crene trajectory read

The center is moving lower at 4.5000%, while the uncertainty band is tightening. The current 90% band is 7.00 pp wide.

Current p50

4.5000%

Current ensemble median

7-poll move

−3.30 pp

Center moved lower

Band width

7.00 pp

Current p5 to p95 range

Band state

Tightening

−2.90 pp versus 7 polls ago

Latest is shown first. Swipe left to inspect earlier polls.

Consensus p50

p5 to p95

p25 to p75

Claude

GPT-4o

Gemini

Grok

Deep dive

Open frozen review records and the full factor machinery only when needed.

History and technical audit

Review historyCurrent selected

Technical factor audit3 audit layers

Resolution and provenance

The factor resolves against named source series and preserves the unit, horizon, and latest generated record used in review.

CRENE-FACTOR-USGDPAI-2030

Resolution criteria

Resolved against BEA satellite accounts for AI economic contribution, or if unavailable, the consensus of McKinsey Global Institute, Stanford HAI, and Brookings estimates of AI direct contribution to US GDP.

Primary · Source

Factor ID

CRENE-FACTOR-USGDPAI-2030

Unit

Percent

Horizon

Dec 31, 2030

Latest record

Aug 18, 2026