Reasoning
Chair Warsh has held rates unchanged at the 3.50 to 3.75 percent target range since June 17 2026, the June 2026 SEP shows a median year end 2026 projection of 3.8 percent, and nine participants now see the year end rate above the current range, indicating the committee already views policy as tighter than the March 2026 SEP median of 3.4 percent; historical precedents show that new Fed chairs rarely reverse the post meeting signal within the first eight weeks of a tightening stance.Key uncertainty
August 2026 CPI and employment data could materially alter the committee's assessment of restrictiveness before the September 17 meeting.