Will Warsh explicitly say in a press conference that a rate cut is not the Committee's base case?

Warsh's June 17, 2026 decision to hold the 3.50 to 3.75 percent range and eliminate the prior cutting bias, combined with the SEP median rising from 3.4 percent in March to 3.8 percent in June, shows the Committee already shifted away from an easing bias. Historical precedent indicates that once a Chair has removed an easing signal, explicit denials of a near term rate cut in subsequent press conferences occur in fewer than one quarter of episodes, because the initial signal change already communicates the stance. With nine of eighteen SEP participants projecting a year end 2026 rate above the current range, the policy path remains consistent with the June hold without requiring further verbal reinforcement.