Will headline CPI exceed 4.5% year over year in any month from June through December 2026? | Crene

Back to thesis map Part ofWill the Federal Reserve raise the target range for the federal funds rate at any point during 2026?

Current eventInflation pressure

Will headline CPI exceed 4.5% year over year in any month from June through December 2026?

LiveResolves Dec 31, 2026

Current view

41%

Current 4 model consensus

Movement

Recent consensus movement

Model disagreement

37pt

Range across the model set

Evidence

Diverging

The evidence is sharply disputed

Thesis map

What is carrying or resisting the view?

Start with the map. Select a mechanism or condition to see what supports the thesis, what resists it, and where disagreement deserves review.

What changed

No decision-relevant findings are available yet.

Daily Updates

Daily snapshots across the full thesis map, weekly freezes, and the preserved map version.

Why the view is fragile

37pt model spread around 41% consensus. Open the full disagreement instrument only when you need the model-level reasoning.

Model disagreement

Model spread

37pt

28% to 65%

Consensus

41%

4 models

Evidence state

Diverging

Models sharply disagree

Most divergent

GPT-4o

+24pt from consensus

Disagreement synthesis

The models share a central case but assign different weight to the evidence.

Claude anchors the lower end at 28%, while GPT-4o anchors the upper end at 65%. Consensus sits at 41%, leaving a 37 point range for review.

Primary review question

Recent geopolitical developments, such as energy prices or global trade disruptions, could significantly affect inflation rates unexpectedly.

Shared probability axis

Range 28% to 65%

Consensus 41%

Claude 28

Gemini 35

Grok 38

GPT-4o 65

0255075100

ModelForecastVs consensusDivergenceReasoning signal

Model reasoning

Select a model to inspect

Reasoning

Given the latest Federal funds target range of 3.50 to 3.75 percent and the June 2026 SEP median projecting a year-end 2026 funds rate of 3.8 percent, there is upward pressure on inflation. With nine of eighteen SEP participants expecting the rate to exceed the current target, this suggests potential tightening that could influence CPI. If consumer demand remains resilient and supply chain issues persist, CPI could exceed 4.5% in the specified months.

Key uncertainty

Recent geopolitical developments, such as energy prices or global trade disruptions, could significantly affect inflation rates unexpectedly.

Deep dive

Full decomposition, component audit, trajectory, and detailed analytical views.

Deep dive

Detailed evidence, audit, and history views.

Open only what you need

Belief trajectoryConsensus 41% · 37pt spread

Belief trajectory0 updates

Belief trajectory

Consensus—

Spread—

Confidence—

Δ Consensus—

Loading belief trajectory…

Resolution & provenance

Resolution sources, record policy, cadence, and permanent record metadata.

Resolution and provenance

How the thesis resolves and how its record is maintained.

Permanent record

Resolution sources

Federal Reserve FOMC statementsimplementation notesSEPpress conference materialsofficial target rangeBLSBEAEIATreasuryFREDCME FedWatchmajor bank research

Record ID

CRENE-FED-WARSH-INF-001

Record policy

Append only

Freeze cadence

Thursdays

Generated

Sep 28, 2026

Back to thesis map Part ofWill the Federal Reserve raise the target range for the federal funds rate at any point during 2026?

Current eventInflation pressure

Will headline CPI exceed 4.5% year over year in any month from June through December 2026?

LiveResolves Dec 31, 2026

Current view

41%

Current 4 model consensus

Movement

Recent consensus movement

Model disagreement

37pt

Range across the model set

Evidence

Diverging

The evidence is sharply disputed

Thesis map

What is carrying or resisting the view?

Start with the map. Select a mechanism or condition to see what supports the thesis, what resists it, and where disagreement deserves review.

What changed

No decision-relevant findings are available yet.

Daily Updates

Daily snapshots across the full thesis map, weekly freezes, and the preserved map version.

Why the view is fragile

37pt model spread around 41% consensus. Open the full disagreement instrument only when you need the model-level reasoning.

Model disagreement

Model spread

37pt

28% to 65%

Consensus

41%

4 models

Evidence state

Diverging

Models sharply disagree

Most divergent

GPT-4o

+24pt from consensus

Disagreement synthesis

The models share a central case but assign different weight to the evidence.

Claude anchors the lower end at 28%, while GPT-4o anchors the upper end at 65%. Consensus sits at 41%, leaving a 37 point range for review.

Primary review question

Recent geopolitical developments, such as energy prices or global trade disruptions, could significantly affect inflation rates unexpectedly.

Shared probability axis

Range 28% to 65%

Consensus 41%

Claude 28

Gemini 35

Grok 38

GPT-4o 65

0255075100

ModelForecastVs consensusDivergenceReasoning signal

Model reasoning

Select a model to inspect

Reasoning

Key uncertainty

Recent geopolitical developments, such as energy prices or global trade disruptions, could significantly affect inflation rates unexpectedly.

Deep dive

Full decomposition, component audit, trajectory, and detailed analytical views.

Deep dive

Detailed evidence, audit, and history views.

Open only what you need

Belief trajectoryConsensus 41% · 37pt spread

Belief trajectory0 updates

Belief trajectory

Consensus—

Spread—

Confidence—

Δ Consensus—

Loading belief trajectory…

Resolution & provenance

Resolution sources, record policy, cadence, and permanent record metadata.

Resolution and provenance

How the thesis resolves and how its record is maintained.

Permanent record

Resolution sources

Federal Reserve FOMC statementsimplementation notesSEPpress conference materialsofficial target rangeBLSBEAEIATreasuryFREDCME FedWatchmajor bank research

Record ID

CRENE-FED-WARSH-INF-001

Record policy

Append only

Freeze cadence

Thursdays

Generated

Sep 28, 2026