Will headline PCE remain at or above 3.5% year over year for three consecutive monthly releases in H2 2026?

With the Federal funds target range holding steady at 3.50 to 3.75 percent and the June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections indicating a median year-end funds rate of 3.8 percent, inflation pressures may remain persistent due to higher borrowing costs entering H2 2026. Additionally, nine out of eighteen SEP participants expect rates to exceed the current range, suggesting a hawkish stance that could keep inflation elevated.