Will the U.S. national average gasoline price exceed $4.25 per gallon for four consecutive weeks in H2 2026?

Given the current federal funds target range of 3.50 to 3.75 percent and the June 2026 meeting's decision to hold rates, there are indications of tightened monetary policy impacting economic growth. Additionally, with half of the FOMC participants expecting higher rates by year-end 2026, demand for gasoline could face downward pressure, stabilizing prices. However, global supply chain issues or geopolitical tensions could elevate prices unexpectedly, increasing the chance of sustained high gasoline prices.