Will the U.S. national average gasoline price exceed $4.25 per gallon for four consecutive weeks in H2 2026?

As of mid-2026, the Federal funds rate is stable at 3.50 to 3.75 percent, with projections indicating a potential increase by the year end, indicating a tighter monetary policy which could suppress consumer spending and demand for fuel. However, geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions could still create upward pressure on gasoline prices, making $4.25 per gallon a plausible scenario. Historical trends show that substantial supply shocks have historically led to sustained high prices, thus leading to a probability of 65% for prices exceeding $4.25 for four consecutive weeks.