Will average hourly earnings growth exceed 4.3% year over year in any H2 2026 release?

The Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate is currently 3.50 to 3.75 percent, and the June 2026 SEP median projection for the year end 2026 funds rate is 3.8 percent, with nine participants projecting rates above the current target range. This suggests a hawkish policy stance aimed at controlling inflation, which would typically dampen wage growth, but the projected funds rate, while slightly above the current range, is not significantly restrictive. Historical data shows that average hourly earnings growth has fluctuated, and a 4.3% year over year increase, while above the current trend, is not unprecedented under moderately restrictive monetary policy.