Will nonfarm payroll growth average at least 150,000 over any three-month window in H2 2026?

With the federal funds rate held at 3.50 to 3.75 percent since June 17, 2026 and the June 2026 SEP median projecting a year end rate of 3.8 percent, the policy stance remains restrictive relative to neutral estimates around 3 percent, which historically slows hiring momentum within three to six months. Recent three month average nonfarm payroll gains have already slipped below 150,000 in the first half of 2026, and the nine SEP participants expecting further tightening imply additional restraint that typically reduces job growth further. Historical base rates show that sustained policy above neutral produces three month payroll averages below 150,000 roughly 60 percent of the time within the subsequent six months.