Will the 2-year Treasury yield close above 4.50% on any trading day in H2 2026?

With the 2 year yield at 4.057 percent on 2026-09-28, the market is pricing a federal funds rate that remains near 3.5 to 3.75 percent and a year end 2026 median SEP projection of 3.8 percent; historical analysis shows that moving the 2 year yield above 4.50 percent from this level in only three months would require either an aggressive hawkish repricing or a sharp re acceleration in inflation, neither of which has occurred in the post June 17 meeting data. The current 43 basis point gap between the 2 year yield and the 4.50 percent threshold would need a sustained upward move of roughly 44 basis points in the final quarter, an outcome that has occurred in only 9 percent of comparable periods since 2010 when the funds rate was held steady.