Will high-yield option-adjusted spreads exceed 450bp for five consecutive trading days in H2 2026?

Given the current economic conditions, with the Federal funds target range at 3.50 to 3.75 percent and a June 2026 SEP median predicting a year-end target of 3.8 percent, there are upward pressures on spreads. Additionally, the fact that nine out of eighteen SEP participants project rates above the current range indicates a tightening environment that could influence credit spreads. However, the historical tendency for high-yield spreads to react to economic data suggests that unless a recessionary signal emerges, these spreads are unlikely to rise to or exceed 450 basis points for an extended period.