Will the MOVE index close above 130 for five consecutive trading days in H2 2026?

The MOVE index reflects Treasury market volatility, and current Fed policy, as evidenced by the unchanged federal funds target range of 3.50 to 3.75 percent and the Fed Chair's hawkish stance, suggests continued uncertainty. However, the SEP median projection of 3.8 percent for the year end 2026 funds rate, with nine participants projecting rates above the current range, indicates a persistent likelihood of elevated rates, which generally correlates with higher volatility. Nevertheless, achieving five consecutive trading days above 130 requires a significant and sustained shock or a sharp repricing of future rate expectations, which has not materialized decisively yet.