Will at least one of Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, or Bank of America publish a base case calling for a 2026 Fed hike by September 30, 2026?

As of September 28, 2026, we are two days before the September 30 deadline. The supplied data shows the Fed held rates at 3.50 to 3.75 percent as of June 17, 2026, with the June SEP median projecting year end 2026 at 3.8 percent (implying only modest rate increases from the June level). For a major bank to publish a base case calling for a hike by September 30, 2026, we would need either an already scheduled FOMC meeting in those final two days or an emergency decision. Given standard FOMC meeting cadences, no meeting appears scheduled between mid September and early November 2026. Without an imminent meeting, publishing a base case hike call would lack credibility and constitute poor analytic practice. The small residual probability accounts only for the possibility of an unscheduled emergency meeting or a late breaking data event so severe it prompted an emergency decision.