Reasoning
Warsh has held the funds rate at 3.50 to 3.75 percent since the June 17 meeting and the June SEP shows the median 2026 year end projection rising to 3.8 percent with nine of eighteen participants above the current range, a policy stance that echoes Greenspan's 2005 to 2006 tightening bias. Sell side notes have already drawn the parallel in 2006 when the funds rate reached 5.25 percent and the dot plot shifted upward. The six month window from September 2026 to March 2027 provides ample time for at least one major bank to publish the comparison.Key uncertainty
Whether Warsh continues to signal a data dependent hold through year end 2026.