Will prediction markets assign at least 40% probability to one or more Fed hikes in 2026 for 10 consecutive days?

As of mid August 2026, the Fed has held rates at 3.50 to 3.75 percent since June 17, with the prior cutting bias explicitly erased. The June SEP median projects year end 2026 at 3.8 percent, implying a 5 to 30 basis point increase from current levels, and critically, nine of eighteen participants (50 percent) project rates above the current range. This represents a material shift from March's 3.4 percent median projection. For prediction markets to assign 40 percent plus probability to 2026 hikes over 10 consecutive days requires modest conviction that the Fed will tighten further; given that half the FOMC participants already project above current levels and inflation dynamics could easily justify tightening before year end, prediction markets would likely cross 40 percent threshold during normal market functioning between now and December, particularly if any inflation surprise or labor market resilience emerges. The base rate for prediction markets reflecting even minority FOMC views at 40 percent-plus probability is historically high.