Will prediction markets assign at least 40% probability to one or more Fed cuts in 2026 for 10 consecutive days after June 17?

With the funds rate at 3.50 to 3.75 percent and the June 2026 SEP median at 3.8 percent, nine of eighteen participants already project a year end 2026 rate above the current range. This hawkish dot plot and the erasure of the prior cutting bias under Chair Warsh create a high bar for rate cuts in the second half of 2026, yet the 40 percent threshold remains reachable if inflation data softens or growth weakens materially. Historical precedent shows that even hawkish SEP forecasts can shift quickly when incoming data contradict the median path.