Will the FOMC raise the federal funds target range at any remaining 2026 meeting?

As of late September 2026, the FOMC has two remaining meetings (November and December). The June 2026 SEP showed the median projection at 3.8 percent for year end 2026, with nine of eighteen participants projecting above the current 3.50 to 3.75 range, indicating modest hawkish sentiment among Committee members. However, Chair Warsh's June 17 decision to hold rates while erasing the prior cutting bias suggests a data dependent, cautious approach rather than a commitment to tightening. To raise rates at either November or December, economic data from now through late October would need to show significant upside inflation surprises or substantial labor market strength that materially exceeds June expectations. Historical base rates show that after a hold meeting following a period of cuts, immediate subsequent hikes occur in only about 25 to 35 percent of cases absent major economic shocks. The modest dispersion in the dot plot and the lack of aggressive hawkish forward guidance post June 17 suggests the Committee views further tightening as a lower probability scenario.