Will the FOMC raise the federal funds target range by 50bp or more cumulatively after June 17, 2026?

Given the current federal funds target range of 3.50 to 3.75 percent and the June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections indicating a median year-end 2026 funds rate expectation of 3.8 percent, it appears likely that further tightening is anticipated. With nine of eighteen SEP participants projecting rates above the current level, the Fed is positioning itself for potential rate increases, particularly in a context where the earlier bias toward cutting has been erased under Chair Kevin Warsh.