Will the FOMC hold rates unchanged at all four remaining 2026 meetings? | Crene

Back to thesis map Part ofWill the Federal Reserve raise the target range for the federal funds rate at any point during 2026?

Current eventDirect policy path

Will the FOMC hold rates unchanged at all four remaining 2026 meetings?

LiveResolves Dec 9, 2026

Current view

37%

Current 4 model consensus

Movement

Recent consensus movement

Model disagreement

38pt

Range across the model set

Evidence

Diverging

The evidence is sharply disputed

Thesis map

What is carrying or resisting the view?

Start with the map. Select a mechanism or condition to see what supports the thesis, what resists it, and where disagreement deserves review.

What changed

No decision-relevant findings are available yet.

Daily Updates

Daily snapshots across the full thesis map, weekly freezes, and the preserved map version.

Why the view is fragile

38pt model spread around 37% consensus. Open the full disagreement instrument only when you need the model-level reasoning.

Model disagreement

Model spread

38pt

22% to 60%

Consensus

37%

4 models

Evidence state

Diverging

Models sharply disagree

Most divergent

GPT-4o

+23pt from consensus

Disagreement synthesis

The models share a central case but assign different weight to the evidence.

Grok anchors the lower end at 22%, while GPT-4o anchors the upper end at 60%. Consensus sits at 37%, leaving a 38 point range for review.

Primary review question

The rate of inflation and its trajectory in the coming months could significantly influence the FOMC's decision to maintain or alter rates.

Shared probability axis

Range 22% to 60%

Consensus 37%

Grok 22

Claude 28

Gemini 40

GPT-4o 60

0255075100

ModelForecastVs consensusDivergenceReasoning signal

Model reasoning

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Reasoning

Given that the Federal funds target range has been held at 3.50 to 3.75 percent since June 17, 2026, and the June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections indicates a median year-end 2026 funds rate of 3.8 percent, there is a reasonable chance that the FOMC might hold rates steady in the near term. However, nine out of eighteen SEP participants project the year-end rate above the current range, suggesting a potential for rate hikes if inflationary pressures or strong economic indicators emerge.

Key uncertainty

The rate of inflation and its trajectory in the coming months could significantly influence the FOMC's decision to maintain or alter rates.

Deep dive

Full decomposition, component audit, trajectory, and detailed analytical views.

Deep dive

Detailed evidence, audit, and history views.

Open only what you need

Belief trajectoryConsensus 37% · 38pt spread

Belief trajectory0 updates

Belief trajectory

Consensus—

Spread—

Confidence—

Δ Consensus—

Loading belief trajectory…

Resolution & provenance

Resolution sources, record policy, cadence, and permanent record metadata.

Resolution and provenance

How the thesis resolves and how its record is maintained.

Permanent record

Resolution sources

Federal Reserve FOMC statementsimplementation notesSEPpress conference materialsofficial target rangeBLSBEAEIATreasuryFREDCME FedWatchmajor bank research

Record ID

CRENE-FED-WARSH-POL-003

Record policy

Append only

Freeze cadence

Thursdays

Generated

Sep 28, 2026

Back to thesis map Part ofWill the Federal Reserve raise the target range for the federal funds rate at any point during 2026?

Current eventDirect policy path

Will the FOMC hold rates unchanged at all four remaining 2026 meetings?

LiveResolves Dec 9, 2026

Current view

37%

Current 4 model consensus

Movement

Recent consensus movement

Model disagreement

38pt

Range across the model set

Evidence

Diverging

The evidence is sharply disputed

Thesis map

What is carrying or resisting the view?

Start with the map. Select a mechanism or condition to see what supports the thesis, what resists it, and where disagreement deserves review.

What changed

No decision-relevant findings are available yet.

Daily Updates

Daily snapshots across the full thesis map, weekly freezes, and the preserved map version.

Why the view is fragile

38pt model spread around 37% consensus. Open the full disagreement instrument only when you need the model-level reasoning.

Model disagreement

Model spread

38pt

22% to 60%

Consensus

37%

4 models

Evidence state

Diverging

Models sharply disagree

Most divergent

GPT-4o

+23pt from consensus

Disagreement synthesis

The models share a central case but assign different weight to the evidence.

Grok anchors the lower end at 22%, while GPT-4o anchors the upper end at 60%. Consensus sits at 37%, leaving a 38 point range for review.

Primary review question

The rate of inflation and its trajectory in the coming months could significantly influence the FOMC's decision to maintain or alter rates.

Shared probability axis

Range 22% to 60%

Consensus 37%

Grok 22

Claude 28

Gemini 40

GPT-4o 60

0255075100

ModelForecastVs consensusDivergenceReasoning signal

Model reasoning

Select a model to inspect

Reasoning

Key uncertainty

The rate of inflation and its trajectory in the coming months could significantly influence the FOMC's decision to maintain or alter rates.

Deep dive

Full decomposition, component audit, trajectory, and detailed analytical views.

Deep dive

Detailed evidence, audit, and history views.

Open only what you need

Belief trajectoryConsensus 37% · 38pt spread

Belief trajectory0 updates

Belief trajectory

Consensus—

Spread—

Confidence—

Δ Consensus—

Loading belief trajectory…

Resolution & provenance

Resolution sources, record policy, cadence, and permanent record metadata.

Resolution and provenance

How the thesis resolves and how its record is maintained.

Permanent record

Resolution sources

Federal Reserve FOMC statementsimplementation notesSEPpress conference materialsofficial target rangeBLSBEAEIATreasuryFREDCME FedWatchmajor bank research

Record ID

CRENE-FED-WARSH-POL-003

Record policy

Append only

Freeze cadence

Thursdays

Generated

Sep 28, 2026