Will the upper bound of the federal funds target range end 2026 below 3.50%?

The June 2026 SEP median projection for the year end 2026 federal funds rate has significantly increased to 3.8 percent from 3.4 percent in March, indicating a hawkish shift in Fed sentiment. With the current target range at 3.50 to 3.75 percent and a clear erasure of the prior cutting bias by Chair Warsh's Fed, holding rates steady and with nine participants projecting rates above the current range suggests upward pressure is more likely than a significant downward move by year end 2026. The upper bound of the target range would need to decrease by more than 25 basis points from its current level to fall below 3.50%.