38% | Will any 2026 FOMC vote after June include a formal dissent in favor of tighter policy?

Back to thesis map Part ofWill the Federal Reserve raise the target range for the federal funds rate at any point during 2026?

Current eventDirect policy path

Will any 2026 FOMC vote after June include a formal dissent in favor of tighter policy?

LiveResolves Dec 9, 2026

Current view

38%

Current 4 model consensus

Movement

Recent consensus movement

Model disagreement

43pt

Range across the model set

Evidence

Diverging

The evidence is sharply disputed

Thesis map

What is carrying or resisting the view?

Start with the map. Select a mechanism or condition to see what supports the thesis, what resists it, and where disagreement deserves review.

What changed

No decision-relevant findings are available yet.

Review record

Weekly freezes, daily history, and the map version preserved with the record.

Why the view is fragile

43pt model spread around 38% consensus. Open the full disagreement instrument only when you need the model-level reasoning.

Model disagreement

Model spread

43pt

22% to 65%

Consensus

38%

4 models

Evidence state

Diverging

Models sharply disagree

Most divergent

GPT-4o

+27pt from consensus

Disagreement synthesis

The models share a central case but assign different weight to the evidence.

Grok anchors the lower end at 22%, while GPT-4o anchors the upper end at 65%. Consensus sits at 38%, leaving a 43 point range for review.

Primary review question

The possibility of unexpected economic data releases could significantly alter the FOMC's outlook and influence voting dynamics.

Shared probability axis

Range 22% to 65%

Consensus 38%

Grok 22

Claude 28

Gemini 40

GPT-4o 65

0255075100

ModelForecastVs consensusDivergenceReasoning signal

Model reasoning

Select a model to inspect

Reasoning

The Federal Open Market Committee has not changed the federal funds target range since June 2026, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy. However, with nine of eighteen Summary of Economic Projections participants forecasting a year-end 2026 rate above the current 3.50 to 3.75 percent range, there is a significant likelihood that at least one member may formally dissent in favor of tighter policy in upcoming votes. Additionally, Chair Kevin Warsh's shift away from a rate cut bias suggests a more hawkish stance could emerge.

Key uncertainty

The possibility of unexpected economic data releases could significantly alter the FOMC's outlook and influence voting dynamics.

Deep dive

Full decomposition, component audit, trajectory, and detailed analytical views.

Deep dive

Detailed evidence, audit, and history views.

Open only what you need

Belief trajectoryConsensus 38% · 43pt spread

Belief trajectory0 updates

Belief trajectory

Consensus—

Spread—

Confidence—

Δ Consensus—

Loading belief trajectory…

Resolution & provenance

Resolution sources, record policy, cadence, and permanent record metadata.

Resolution and provenance

How the thesis resolves and how its record is maintained.

Permanent record

Resolution sources

Federal Reserve FOMC statementsimplementation notesSEPpress conference materialsofficial target rangeBLSBEAEIATreasuryFREDCME FedWatchmajor bank research

Record ID

CRENE-FED-WARSH-POL-007

Record policy

Append only

Freeze cadence

Thursdays

Generated

Aug 13, 2026

Back to thesis map Part ofWill the Federal Reserve raise the target range for the federal funds rate at any point during 2026?

Current eventDirect policy path

Will any 2026 FOMC vote after June include a formal dissent in favor of tighter policy?

LiveResolves Dec 9, 2026

Current view

38%

Current 4 model consensus

Movement

Recent consensus movement

Model disagreement

43pt

Range across the model set

Evidence

Diverging

The evidence is sharply disputed

Thesis map

What is carrying or resisting the view?

Start with the map. Select a mechanism or condition to see what supports the thesis, what resists it, and where disagreement deserves review.

What changed

No decision-relevant findings are available yet.

Review record

Weekly freezes, daily history, and the map version preserved with the record.

Why the view is fragile

43pt model spread around 38% consensus. Open the full disagreement instrument only when you need the model-level reasoning.

Model disagreement

Model spread

43pt

22% to 65%

Consensus

38%

4 models

Evidence state

Diverging

Models sharply disagree

Most divergent

GPT-4o

+27pt from consensus

Disagreement synthesis

The models share a central case but assign different weight to the evidence.

Grok anchors the lower end at 22%, while GPT-4o anchors the upper end at 65%. Consensus sits at 38%, leaving a 43 point range for review.

Primary review question

The possibility of unexpected economic data releases could significantly alter the FOMC's outlook and influence voting dynamics.

Shared probability axis

Range 22% to 65%

Consensus 38%

Grok 22

Claude 28

Gemini 40

GPT-4o 65

0255075100

ModelForecastVs consensusDivergenceReasoning signal

Model reasoning

Select a model to inspect

Reasoning

Key uncertainty

The possibility of unexpected economic data releases could significantly alter the FOMC's outlook and influence voting dynamics.

Deep dive

Full decomposition, component audit, trajectory, and detailed analytical views.

Deep dive

Detailed evidence, audit, and history views.

Open only what you need

Belief trajectoryConsensus 38% · 43pt spread

Belief trajectory0 updates

Belief trajectory

Consensus—

Spread—

Confidence—

Δ Consensus—

Loading belief trajectory…

Resolution & provenance

Resolution sources, record policy, cadence, and permanent record metadata.

Resolution and provenance

How the thesis resolves and how its record is maintained.

Permanent record

Resolution sources

Federal Reserve FOMC statementsimplementation notesSEPpress conference materialsofficial target rangeBLSBEAEIATreasuryFREDCME FedWatchmajor bank research

Record ID

CRENE-FED-WARSH-POL-007

Record policy

Append only

Freeze cadence

Thursdays

Generated

Aug 13, 2026