Will any 2026 FOMC vote after June include a formal dissent in favor of tighter policy? | Crene

Back to thesis map Part ofWill the Federal Reserve raise the target range for the federal funds rate at any point during 2026?

Current eventDirect policy path

Will any 2026 FOMC vote after June include a formal dissent in favor of tighter policy?

LiveResolves Dec 9, 2026

Current view

40%

Current 4 model consensus

Movement

Recent consensus movement

Model disagreement

37pt

Range across the model set

Evidence

Diverging

The evidence is sharply disputed

Thesis map

What is carrying or resisting the view?

Start with the map. Select a mechanism or condition to see what supports the thesis, what resists it, and where disagreement deserves review.

What changed

No decision-relevant findings are available yet.

Daily Updates

Daily snapshots across the full thesis map, weekly freezes, and the preserved map version.

Why the view is fragile

37pt model spread around 40% consensus. Open the full disagreement instrument only when you need the model-level reasoning.

Model disagreement

Model spread

37pt

28% to 65%

Consensus

40%

4 models

Evidence state

Diverging

Models sharply disagree

Most divergent

GPT-4o

+25pt from consensus

Disagreement synthesis

The models share a central case but assign different weight to the evidence.

Claude anchors the lower end at 28%, while GPT-4o anchors the upper end at 65%. Consensus sits at 40%, leaving a 37 point range for review.

Primary review question

Changes in economic indicators or inflation data that could lead to a shift in the FOMC's outlook.

Shared probability axis

Range 28% to 65%

Consensus 40%

Claude 28

Gemini 35

Grok 35

GPT-4o 65

0255075100

ModelForecastVs consensusDivergenceReasoning signal

Model reasoning

Select a model to inspect

Reasoning

The current Federal funds target range of 3.50 to 3.75 percent has been maintained since June 2026, with the June Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showing a median year-end 2026 funds rate expectation of 3.8 percent. Additionally, nine of the eighteen SEP participants are projecting rates above the current target range, indicating potential support for tighter policy. The absence of a cutting bias and the recent trend towards holding rates suggest that there is a significant risk of dissent emerging at future meetings, especially as inflationary pressures remain a concern.

Key uncertainty

Changes in economic indicators or inflation data that could lead to a shift in the FOMC's outlook.

Deep dive

Full decomposition, component audit, trajectory, and detailed analytical views.

Deep dive

Detailed evidence, audit, and history views.

Open only what you need

Belief trajectoryConsensus 40% · 37pt spread

Belief trajectory0 updates

Belief trajectory

Consensus—

Spread—

Confidence—

Δ Consensus—

Loading belief trajectory…

Resolution & provenance

Resolution sources, record policy, cadence, and permanent record metadata.

Resolution and provenance

How the thesis resolves and how its record is maintained.

Permanent record

Resolution sources

Federal Reserve FOMC statementsimplementation notesSEPpress conference materialsofficial target rangeBLSBEAEIATreasuryFREDCME FedWatchmajor bank research

Record ID

CRENE-FED-WARSH-POL-007

Record policy

Append only

Freeze cadence

Thursdays

Generated

Sep 28, 2026

Back to thesis map Part ofWill the Federal Reserve raise the target range for the federal funds rate at any point during 2026?

Current eventDirect policy path

Will any 2026 FOMC vote after June include a formal dissent in favor of tighter policy?

LiveResolves Dec 9, 2026

Current view

40%

Current 4 model consensus

Movement

Recent consensus movement

Model disagreement

37pt

Range across the model set

Evidence

Diverging

The evidence is sharply disputed

Thesis map

What is carrying or resisting the view?

Start with the map. Select a mechanism or condition to see what supports the thesis, what resists it, and where disagreement deserves review.

What changed

No decision-relevant findings are available yet.

Daily Updates

Daily snapshots across the full thesis map, weekly freezes, and the preserved map version.

Why the view is fragile

37pt model spread around 40% consensus. Open the full disagreement instrument only when you need the model-level reasoning.

Model disagreement

Model spread

37pt

28% to 65%

Consensus

40%

4 models

Evidence state

Diverging

Models sharply disagree

Most divergent

GPT-4o

+25pt from consensus

Disagreement synthesis

The models share a central case but assign different weight to the evidence.

Claude anchors the lower end at 28%, while GPT-4o anchors the upper end at 65%. Consensus sits at 40%, leaving a 37 point range for review.

Primary review question

Changes in economic indicators or inflation data that could lead to a shift in the FOMC's outlook.

Shared probability axis

Range 28% to 65%

Consensus 40%

Claude 28

Gemini 35

Grok 35

GPT-4o 65

0255075100

ModelForecastVs consensusDivergenceReasoning signal

Model reasoning

Select a model to inspect

Reasoning

Key uncertainty

Changes in economic indicators or inflation data that could lead to a shift in the FOMC's outlook.

Deep dive

Full decomposition, component audit, trajectory, and detailed analytical views.

Deep dive

Detailed evidence, audit, and history views.

Open only what you need

Belief trajectoryConsensus 40% · 37pt spread

Belief trajectory0 updates

Belief trajectory

Consensus—

Spread—

Confidence—

Δ Consensus—

Loading belief trajectory…

Resolution & provenance

Resolution sources, record policy, cadence, and permanent record metadata.

Resolution and provenance

How the thesis resolves and how its record is maintained.

Permanent record

Resolution sources

Federal Reserve FOMC statementsimplementation notesSEPpress conference materialsofficial target rangeBLSBEAEIATreasuryFREDCME FedWatchmajor bank research

Record ID

CRENE-FED-WARSH-POL-007

Record policy

Append only

Freeze cadence

Thursdays

Generated

Sep 28, 2026