Will the October 2026 FOMC meeting result in a rate hike?

The current 3.50 to 3.75 percent target range has been held since June 17, 2026, and the June SEP median projects a year end 2026 rate of 3.8 percent, with nine of eighteen participants already seeing the rate above the current range. This configuration, combined with Chair Warsh's decision to remove the prior easing bias at the June meeting, indicates the FOMC is more likely to stay on hold than to resume tightening. Historical base rates show rate hikes at the first meeting after a long pause are rare once a neutral or restrictive stance has been signaled.